Considering the complexity and fuzziness of railway operation emergencies, this study proposes a variable fuzzy evaluation model to assess emergency management capability. Based on the four-stage emergency management framework—prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery—an index system consisting of 17 evaluation indicators for railway emergency management capability is established, with reference to the "dual prevention mechanism" for value assignment. To ensure scientific rigor and reliability, subjective weights obtained through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are integrated with objective weights derived from the CRITIC method, thereby forming a combined subjective–objective weighting model. Using the "10·15" Beihe Railway passenger train derailment accident in Heilongjiang Province as a case study, four different parameter combinations of the variable fuzzy evaluation method are applied to calculate the grade characteristic values of emergency management capability. The results indicate that the evaluation level of emergency management capability for railway operation emergencies is Grade III (moderate), with potential for advancement to Grade II (stronger). Recommendations for enhancing the emergency management capability of railway operation emergencies are provided, thereby verifying the scientific validity and rationality of the proposed model.